BCDI Chairman Report – October 2025

Chairman Report

Blue Collar Dollar Institute

October 15, 2025

Data Table

Current Economic Events

Several indicators in the report have not seen updates to their data in the past month due to the government shutdown.
The US goods trade deficit so far this year totals to $806 billion, a $145 billion increase over the $661 billion deficit across the same period last year. If this increased deficit trend continues, we’d expect the annual trade deficit to be nearly $1.38 trillion.
Consumer spending has been growing steadily, but more of it now comes from the top 10% of earners, while the bottom 10% are spending less.
Though exports from China to the US have fallen sharply since April, Chinese exports to areas of the world known for transshipment routes to the US have increased which could allow for Chinese goods to avoid US tariffs.
According to the Manufacturing Institute and Deloitte, as many as half of the projected 3.8 million additional jobs that would be added in the manufacturing industry over the next decade could go unfilled if more is not done to train and attract new talent.

Cumulative U.S. Goods Trade Surplus/Deficit (1960 – Jul 2025)

Date	Trade Surplus/Deficit (Trillions)
1960	$0.01
1980	($0.09)
2000	($3.18)
Beginning of 2025	($17.26)
Jun 2025	($22.47)
Jul 2025	($22.58)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Bureau of Economic Analysis

The U.S. cumulative trade balance measures the total difference between the value of goods America has sold abroad and the goods it has purchased from other countries since 1960. Because the balance is negative, the U.S. has run persistent trade deficits, meaning it consistently buys more than it sells. Over time, these deficits can weaken domestic industries, deepen reliance on imports, and raise concerns about America’s long-term competitiveness.

Cumulative U.S. Goods Trade Surplus/Deficit by Country (1985 – Jul 2025)

Country	Goods Trade Surplus/Deficit (Trillions)	Percentage Change
China (Mainland)	($7.25)	0.2%
Japan	($2.60)	0.2%
Mexico	($2.02)	0.8%
Germany	($1.63)	0.4%
Canada	($1.36)	0.4%
Ireland	($0.94)	0.3%
Vietnam	($0.93)	1.8%
Taiwan	($0.78)	1.9%
Italy	($0.75)	0.4%
South Korea	($0.65)	0.8%

U.S. Monthly Goods Trade Deficit by Country

Country	U.S. Goods Trade Deficit for July 2025 (Billions USD)	Percentage Change	Percent of Total Month’s Deficit
China	-$17.1	80.0%	14.6%
Vietnam	-$16.6	0.7%	14.2%
Mexico	-$16.4	-2.4%	14.0%
Taiwan	-$14.6	15.4%	12.4%
Germany	-$6.3	66.9%	5.4%
Canada	-$6.1	362.8%	5.2%
Japan	-$5.6	8.1%	4.8%
South Korea	-$5.2	-10.2%	4.5%
Italy	-$3.1	66.7%	2.6%
Ireland	-$2.6	-51.5%	2.2%
All Other	-$23.6	36.7%	20.2%
Total	-$117.1

Average Annual Earnings & Benefits by Selected Industries (July 2025)

Industry	Average Annual Wages	Estimated Annual Benefits	Total Annual Earnings
Manufacturing Jobs
Transport Manufacturers	$79,818	$21,629	$101,448
Chemical Manufacturing	$69,648	$21,578	$91,226
Primary Metal Manufacturing	$66,506	$22,503	$89,009
Machinery Manufacturing	$65,208	$21,013	$86,220
Service Jobs
Accommodation	$33,352	$2,789	$36,141
Gas Station Employees	$29,306	$2,747	$32,053
Food & Drink Cashiers	$27,374	$4,297	$31,671
Food Services	$23,886	$2,141	$26,027

Total Manufacturing Employees and Their Percentage of All Jobs

Year	Manufacturing Jobs (Millions)	Percent Manufacturing of All Jobs	U.S. Population (Millions)
1960	15.0	27.9%	176
1980	18.6	20.5%	223
2000	17.1	13.0%	282
2020	12.2	8.5%	333
Beginning of 2025	12.8	8.0%	341
Jul 2025	12.7	8.0%	342
Aug 2025	12.7	8.0%	342

Average Federal Government Debt Per Person in the US Population

Year	Federal Debt per Capita
1952	$1,638
1960	$1,571
1980	$3,966
2000	$19,955
2020	$83,549
Beginning of 2025	$106,500
Jul 2025	$108,040
Aug 2025	$109,229

Inflation Rates (CPI) by Country

Month	USA	China	Japan	South Korea	Germany
Jun 2025	2.7%	0.1%	3.3%	2.2%	2%
Jul 2025	2.7%	0%	3.1%	2.1%	2%
Aug 2025	2.9%	-0.4%	2.7%	2.1%	2.4%
Sep 2025	–	-0.3%	–	2.1%	2.4%

Major Holders of U.S. Treasury Securities for July 2025

Country	Holdings (Billions)	Percentage Change
Tax Haven Countries	$1,471	0.4%
Japan	$1,151	0.3%
United Kingdom	$899	4.8%
China, Mainland	$731	-3.4%
Belgium	$428	-1.2%
France	$392	4.6%
Canada	$381	-13.0%
Taiwan	$300	0.6%
Singapore	$254	-0.3%
Hong Kong	$248	2.3%
India	$220	-3.4%
Total Foreign Holdings	$9,159	0.3%

Goods Sector Employment: Manufacturing, Construction, Mining

Year	Millions of Jobs	% of All Jobs
1960	19.1	35.2%
1980	24.2	26.7%
2000	24.6	18.6%
2020	20.0	14.1%
Beginning of 2025	21.6	13.6%
Jul 2025	21.6	13.5%
Aug 2025	21.6	13.5%

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED: Manufacturing, Total Nonfarm, Mining, Quarrying, and Extraction, Construction

This measure includes manufacturing, construction, and mining jobs, as well as their share of the total workforce. It shows how many Americans are employed in the production of goods, or physical items. A declining share of goods-producing jobs reflects not only a shift toward a service-based economy, but also the offshoring of U.S. industries, with serious consequences for wages, the trade balance, and long-term economic security.

QUARTERLY DATA

Net Foreign Wealth Per Person (NIIP) by Country

Country	2005	2010	2015	2020	2024 Q3
Germany	$4,365	$10,761	$18,729	$34,479	$44,075
Japan	$11,972	$24,590	$21,400	$29,173	$29,093
Canada	($4,653)	($8,824)	$8,964	$23,152	$34,808
South Korea	($2,906)	($2,624)	$3,921	$10,622	$18,975
China	$263	$1,081	$1,187	$1,494	$2,260
Greece	($16,379)	($26,978)	($24,030)	($32,649)	($32,563)
United States	($6,294)	($8,115)	($23,262)	($42,185)	($70,145)

Source: International Investment Position at IMF (International Monetary Fund)

Net International Investment Position (NIIP) compares how much a nation owns in overseas assets versus how much foreigners own of that nation’s assets. A negative number means a country owes more to the world than it owns abroad. The U.S. is the world’s largest net borrower, resulting in increased reliance on foreign countries to obtain the goods we need, especially during times of crisis.

National Debt (Public) by Country as % of GDP

Nation	1995	2000	2010	2020	2025, Q1
China	—	—	16.4%	20.6%	26.5%
Germany	—	38.2%	52.1%	44.8%	43.7%
United States	70.4%	53.4%	85.0%	124.7%	116.2%

ANNUAL DATA

Change in Household Income and Major Expenses

	Average Household Income by Percentile				Household Expenses
Year	Top 5%	Next 15%	Middle 60%	Bottom 20%	Average Healthcare	Average Tuition and Fees	Median Housing Values
1970	33,280	17,813	8,778	1,992	1,168	645	23,475
2023	526,200	221,000	85,907	17,650	37,120	14,688	426,525
% Change	1,481%	1,141%	879%	786%	3,078%	2,177%	1,717%

Average Annual Wage Increases for 2010 – 2024: U.S. vs China

Country	Total	Worker’s Raises Per Year
China	239.7%	9.13%
U.S.	58.2%	3.32%

Critical Goods Production: Materials in the U.S. and China

	Aluminum (Millions of Tons)		Steel (Millions of Tons)		Coal(Millions of Tons)
Year	USA	China	USA	China	USA	China
2024	0.7	43.4	81.0	1,000.8	464.2	4,760.0
2000	3.7	2.8	102.0	128.5	974.0	849.4
1953	1.1	0.0	101.0	1.8	441.3	70.0

Total Vehicle Production by Country

Year	USA	China	Japan	Germany	South Korea	India	Russia
2024	10,562,188	31,281,592	8,997,440	4,069,222	4,127,252	6,014,691	982,665
2000	12,799,857	2,069,069	10,140,769	5,526,615	3,114,998	801,360	1,205,581
1980	8,020,830	< 360,000	11,058,029	3,885,357	360,000	360,000	2,198,301
1950	8,005,010	< 3,000	31,597	306,064	3,000	14,688	362,985

Total Vehicle Production by Type, 2024

Country	Cars	LCV	HCV	Buses
USA	1,432,615	8,804,413	325,160	*
China	27,476,886	2,029,329	1,655,941	119,436
Japan	7,139,188	629,124	460,130	6,239
Germany	4,069,222	281,078	88,240	5,382
South Korea	3,849,326	219,716	49,095	9,114
India	4,991,413	641,558	319,712	62,008
Russia	753,754	125,908	86,867	16,136

Sources: International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers

Breaking down vehicle output by type (cars, light commercial vehicles or LCVs, heavy commercial vehicles or HCVs, buses) highlights each country’s industrial focus. The U.S. leads in the production of LCVs (include vehicles such as pickup trucks and cargo vans), while China dominates in passenger cars. These trends show that despite the US leading in LCVs, there is an increasing reliance on imports for passenger cars and HCVs, which include vehicles critical to US industries such as dump trucks, cement mixers, and semi-trucks.

Largest Global Importers of Tractors, 2024

Nation	Imports
United States	$15,669
Canada	$5,308
Germany	$3,460
United Kingdom	$2,789
Poland	$2,423

Total Exports of Semiconductors, Computer Chips, and Parts Thereof (Millions of USD)

Year	China, Mainland	U.S.
1990	$128	$11,401
2000	$4,490	$45,198
2010	$62,416	$31,619
2020	$153,789	$27,577
2024	$209,216	$30,199

U.S. Pharmaceutical and Medicinal Imports by Weight in 2024

Country	Total U.S. Pharma Imports (kg)	Percent of Total U.S. Pharma Imports
China	111,295,368	13%
India	136,619,029	17%
Rest of the World	580,714,035	70%

Top 5 Largest Trade Deficits by Product, 2024

Product	Deficit (Billions of USD)
Motor cars and other motor vehicles (HS8703)	($162)
Automatic data processing machines (HS8471)	($121)
Telephone sets (HS8517)	($104)
Medicines and medicaments (HS3004)	($74)
Blood and blood components (HS3002)	($63)

Top 5 Largest Trade Surpluses by Product, 2024

Product	Surplus (Billions of USD)
Petroleum oils and oils from bituminous minerals (HS2710)	$58
Petroleum gases and other gaseous hydrocarbons (HS2711)	$53
Soybeans, whether broken or not (HS1201)	$24
Maize (corn) (HS1005)	$14
Coal; briquettes, ovoids and similar solid fuels (HS2701)	$14

Sources: World Integrated Trade Solution

This measure shows which products the U.S. exports more than it imports. Surpluses in energy products like petroleum and natural gas, along with agricultural goods such as soybeans and corn, demonstrate America’s continued strengths in these sectors. While these surpluses help offset overall trade imbalances, they are not large enough on their own to counter the nation’s much bigger deficits in manufactured goods.

Top 5 Largest Trade Deficits with China by Product, 2024

Product	Deficit (Billions of USD)
Telephone sets/ telephones (HS8517)	($52)
Data processing machines (HS8471)	($37)
Electric accumulators (HS8507)	($18)
Toys, Tricycles & Scooters (HS9503)	($14)
Parts and Accessories for Motor Vehicles (HS8708)	($9)

Top 5 Largest Trade Surpluses with China by Product, 2024

Product	Surplus (Billions of USD)
Soybeans, whether broken or not (HS1201)	$13
Petroleum gases and other gaseous hydrocarbons (HS2711)	$6
Electronic integrated circuits; parts thereof (HS8542)	$6
Machines and apparatus used to make Semiconductors (HS8486)	$3
Copper waste and scrap (HS7404)	$3

Average U.S. Income by Education Attainment

Year	High School Degree or Less	Trade/Technical School	Bachelor’s Degree Only
2024	$50,770	$61,480	$93,020
2023	$47,330	$59,590	$87,710
2022	$45,770	$58,220	$85,750
2021	$43,015	$52,700	$81,230
2020	$39,465	$43,015	$74,013

Chairman’s Glossary

Trade Deficit:

The amount by which the cost of a country’s imports exceeds the value of its exports.

GDP (Gross Domestic Product):

The total value of goods produced and services provided in a country during one year.

CPI (Consumer Price Index):

A measure that examines the weighted average of prices of a basket of consumer goods and services, such as transportation, food, and medical care.

NIIP (Net International Investment Position):

The difference between a nation’s external financial assets and liabilities.

LCV (Light Commercial Vehicle):

A commercial carrier vehicle with a gross vehicle weight of no more than 3.5 tonnes.

HCV (Heavy Commercial Vehicle):

A commercial carrier vehicle with a gross vehicle weight more than 3.5 tonnes.

HS Code:

The Harmonized System (HS) is a standardized numerical method of classifying traded products.