Current Economic Events
- The US goods trade deficit so far this year totals to $806 billion, a $145 billion increase over the $661 billion deficit across the same period last year. If this increased deficit trend continues, we’d expect the annual trade deficit to be nearly $1.38 trillion.
- College-educated young men are facing difficulties in finding employment, with Financial Times estimating that 7% are unemployed, showing the decreasing value of higher education to employers.
- The AEI Housing Center found that the average worker is unable to afford to purchase nearly half of all entry-level homes in 74 out of 100 major metro areas.
- Though exports from China to the US have fallen sharply since April, Chinese exports to areas of the world known for transshipment routes to the US have increased which could allow for Chinese goods to avoid US tariffs.
- The National Association of Manufacturers projects that 3.8 million manufacturing jobs will be needed by 2033, with 1.9 million going unfilled if more is not done to inspire and educate people to enter the industry.
Cumulative U.S. Goods Trade Surplus/Deficit (1960 – Jul 2025)
| Date | Trade Surplus/Deficit (Trillions) |
|---|---|
| 1960 | $0.01 |
| 1980 | ($0.09) |
| 2000 | ($3.18) |
| Beginning of 2025 | ($17.26) |
| Jun 2025 | ($22.47) |
| Jul 2025 | ($22.58) |
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Bureau of Economic Analysis
The US has been importing more goods than it’s been exporting for the past half-century.
Cumulative U.S. Goods Trade Surplus/Deficit by Country (1985 – Jul 2025)
| Country | Goods Trade Surplus/Deficit (Trillions) | Percentage Change |
|---|---|---|
| China (Mainland) | ($7.25) | 0.2% |
| Japan | ($2.60) | 0.2% |
| Mexico | ($2.02) | 0.8% |
| Germany | ($1.63) | 0.4% |
| Canada | ($1.36) | 0.4% |
| Ireland | ($0.94) | 0.3% |
| Vietnam | ($0.93) | 1.8% |
| Taiwan | ($0.78) | 1.9% |
| Italy | ($0.75) | 0.4% |
| South Korea | ($0.65) | 0.8% |
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
We have seen nearly all US cumulative trade deficits with other major countries worsen in July.
U.S. Monthly Goods Trade Deficit by Country
| Country | U.S. Goods Trade Deficit for July 2025 (Billions USD) | Percentage Change | Percent of Total Month’s Deficit |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | -$17.1 | 80.0% | 14.6% |
| Vietnam | -$16.6 | 0.7% | 14.2% |
| Mexico | -$16.4 | -2.4% | 14.0% |
| Taiwan | -$14.6 | 15.4% | 12.4% |
| Germany | -$6.3 | 66.9% | 5.4% |
| Canada | -$6.1 | 362.8% | 5.2% |
| Japan | -$5.6 | 8.1% | 4.8% |
| South Korea | -$5.2 | -10.2% | 4.5% |
| Italy | -$3.1 | 66.7% | 2.6% |
| Ireland | -$2.6 | -51.5% | 2.2% |
| All Other | -$23.6 | 36.7% | 20.2% |
| Total | -$117.1 |
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Our trade deficit for July was a notable $30 billion increase over June’s deficit, and only $2 billion less than the deficit in July of last year.
Average Annual Earnings & Benefits by Selected Industries (July 2025)
| Industry | Average Annual Wages | Estimated Annual Benefits | Total Annual Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manufacturing Jobs | |||
| Transport Manufacturers | $79,818 | $21,629 | $101,448 |
| Chemical Manufacturing | $69,648 | $21,578 | $91,226 |
| Primary Metal Manufacturing | $66,506 | $22,503 | $89,009 |
| Machinery Manufacturing | $65,208 | $21,013 | $86,220 |
| Service Jobs | |||
| Accommodation | $33,352 | $2,789 | $36,141 |
| Gas Station Employees | $29,306 | $2,747 | $32,053 |
| Food & Drink Cashiers | $27,374 | $4,297 | $31,671 |
| Food Services | $23,886 | $2,141 | $26,027 |
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Jobs in manufacturing continue to offer higher wages and benefits compared to jobs in the service industry.
Total Manufacturing Employees and Their Percentage of All Jobs
| Year | Manufacturing Jobs (Millions) | Percent Manufacturing of All Jobs | U.S. Population (Millions) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1960 | 15.0 | 27.9% | 176 |
| 1980 | 18.6 | 20.5% | 223 |
| 2000 | 17.1 | 13.0% | 282 |
| 2020 | 12.2 | 8.5% | 333 |
| Beginning of 2025 | 12.8 | 8.0% | 341 |
| Jul 2025 | 12.7 | 8.0% | 342 |
| Aug 2025 | 12.7 | 8.0% | 342 |
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Manufacturing, Non-farm)
Manufacturing industry employment continues to stagnate despite the growing demand for new workers.
Average Federal Government Debt Per Person in the US Population
| Year | Federal Debt per Capita |
|---|---|
| 1952 | $1,638 |
| 1960 | $1,571 |
| 1980 | $3,966 |
| 2000 | $19,955 |
| 2020 | $83,549 |
| Beginning of 2025 | $106,500 |
| Jun 2025 | $106,124 |
| Jul 2025 | $108,040 |
Source: Debt Held by Public
Our federal debt remains at an alarmingly high level.
Inflation Rates (CPI) by Country
| Month | USA | China | Japan | South Korea | Germany |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2025 | 2.3% | -0.1% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 2.1% |
| May 2025 | 2.4% | -0.1% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 2.1% |
| Jun 2025 | 2.7% | 0.1% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 2% |
| Jul 2025 | – | 0% | – | 2.1% | 2% |
Source: Trading Economics
Inflation remains elevated above normal levels for major countries, except China.
Major Holders of U.S. Treasury Securities for June 2025
| Country | Holdings (Billions) | Percentage Change |
|---|---|---|
| Tax Haven Countries | $1,466 | -1.4% |
| Japan | $1,148 | 1.1% |
| United Kingdom | $858 | 6.0% |
| China, Mainland | $756 | 0.0% |
| Canada | $438 | 2.0% |
| Belgium | $433 | 4.3% |
| France | $375 | -0.1% |
| Taiwan | $298 | 1.8% |
| Singapore | $254 | 2.0% |
| Hong Kong | $243 | -4.0% |
| India | $227 | -3.4% |
| Total Foreign Holdings | $9,128 | 0.9% |
Source: U.S. Treasury
Total foreign holdings saw an increase from May to June of about $82 billion.
Goods Sector Employment: Manufacturing, Construction, Mining
| Year | Millions of Jobs | % of All Jobs |
|---|---|---|
| 1960 | 19.1 | 35.2% |
| 1980 | 24.2 | 26.7% |
| 2000 | 24.6 | 18.6% |
| 2020 | 20.0 | 14.1% |
| Beginning of 2025 | 21.6 | 13.6% |
| Jul 2025 | 21.6 | 13.5% |
| Aug 2025 | 21.6 | 13.5% |
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED: Manufacturing, Total Nonfarm, Mining, Quarrying, and Extraction, Construction
Goods-sector employment still remains well below what it was in previous decades.
QUARTERLY DATA
Net Foreign Wealth Per Person (NIIP) by Country
| Country | 2005 | 2010 | 2015 | 2020 | 2024 Q3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | $4,365 | $10,761 | $18,729 | $34,479 | $44,075 |
| Japan | $11,972 | $24,590 | $21,400 | $29,173 | $29,093 |
| Canada | ($4,653) | ($8,824) | $8,964 | $23,152 | $34,808 |
| South Korea | ($2,906) | ($2,624) | $3,921 | $10,622 | $18,975 |
| China | $263 | $1,081 | $1,187 | $1,494 | $2,260 |
| Greece | ($16,379) | ($26,978) | ($24,030) | ($32,649) | ($32,563) |
| United States | ($6,294) | ($8,115) | ($23,262) | ($42,185) | ($70,145) |
Source: International Investment Position at IMF (International Monetary Fund)
Net International Investment Position (NIIP) is the difference between what a country owns abroad and what it owes to a foreign entity. Positive NIIP means a country is a net lender while a negative figure means the country is a net borrower. The United States is the world’s largest net borrower.
The United States Owes Far More Than Any Other Country as the World’s Largest Net Borrower
National Debt (Public) by Country as % of GDP
| Nation | 1995 | 2000 | 2010 | 2020 | 2025, Q1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | — | — | 16.4% | 20.6% | 26.5% |
| Germany | — | 38.2% | 52.1% | 44.8% | 43.7% |
| United States | 70.4% | 53.4% | 85.0% | 124.7% | 116.2% |
Source: World Bank
The U.S. has a Significantly High Percentage of Public Debt Relative to GDP Compared to Other Major Economies
ANNUAL DATA
Change in Household Income and Major Expenses
| Average Household Income by Percentile | Household Expenses | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Top 5% | Next 15% | Middle 60% | Bottom 20% | Average Healthcare | Average Tuition and Fees | Median Housing Values |
| 1970 | 33,280 | 17,813 | 8,778 | 1,992 | 1,168 | 645 | 23,475 |
| 2023 | 526,200 | 221,000 | 85,907 | 17,650 | 37,120 | 14,688 | 426,525 |
| % Change | 1,481% | 1,141% | 879% | 786% | 3,078% | 2,177% | 1,717% |
Sources: US Census Bureau, Minneapolis Fed, Center for Medicaid, FRED, National Center for Education Statistics
This table compares average household income by percentile and major expenses from 1970 to 2023, highlighting middle-class stagnation and rising costs. Between 1979 and 2021, real earnings for the top 1% and 0.1% rose by 206% and 465%, respectively, according to the Economic Policy Institute.
The Growing Income Disparity and Rise in Healthcare and Education Costs Compared is Plaguing the Middle Class
Average Annual Wage Increases for 2010 – 2024: U.S. vs China
| Country | Total | Worker’s Raises Per Year |
|---|---|---|
| China | 226.15% | 9.52% |
| U.S. | 52.81% | 3.32% |
Sources: OECD, Trading Economics, Statista
This comparison of average annual wage increases between China and the U.S. highlights a major disparity. Since 2010, China has a 226% total increase compared to the 52% of the U.S. reflecting the formers rapid economic development.
China has seen dramatic wage increases since 2010, with wages increasing by 226%.
Critical Goods Production: Materials in the U.S. and China
| Aluminum (Millions of Tons) | Steel (Millions of Tons) | Coal(Millions of Tons) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | USA | China | USA | China | USA | China |
| 2024 | 0.7 | 43.4 | 81.0 | 1,000.8 | 464.2 | 4,760.0 |
| 2000 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 102.0 | 128.5 | 974.0 | 849.4 |
| 1953 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 101.0 | 1.8 | 441.3 | 70.0 |
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, CEIC
This table highlights China’s dramatic surge in production of aluminum, steel, and coal, surpassing the U.S. in the production of these critical goods. The U.S. no longer has the capacity to produce enough critical goods or defend itself in the event of war since we import so much from China.
China has Surpassed the U.S. in Aluminum, Steel, and Coal Production
Total Vehicle Production by Country
| Year | USA | China | Japan | Germany | South Korea | India | Russia |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 10,562,188 | 31,281,592 | 8,997,440 | 4,069,222 | 4,127,252 | 6,014,691 | 982,665 |
| 2000 | 12,799,857 | 2,069,069 | 10,140,769 | 5,526,615 | 3,114,998 | 801,360 | 1,205,581 |
| 1980 | 8,020,830 | < 360,000 | 11,058,029 | 3,885,357 | 360,000 | 360,000 | 2,198,301 |
| 1950 | 8,005,010 | < 3,000 | 31,597 | 306,064 | 3,000 | 14,688 | 362,985 |
Sources: International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers
This table tracks vehicle production from 1950 to 2024 across several major automobile manufacturing countries. It showcases China’s rise to becoming the world’s largest vehicle producer in the world, overcoming traditional powerhouses like the U.S. and Japan.
Historic automobile manufacturing countries like the US, Japan, and Germany saw decreases in production in 2024, while Russia, India, and China ramped up theirs.
Total Vehicle Production by Type, 2024
| Country | Cars | LCV | HCV | Buses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 1,432,615 | 8,804,413 | 325,160 | * |
| China | 27,476,886 | 2,029,329 | 1,655,941 | 119,436 |
| Japan | 7,139,188 | 629,124 | 460,130 | 6,239 |
| Germany | 4,069,222 | 281,078 | 88,240 | 5,382 |
| South Korea | 3,849,326 | 219,716 | 49,095 | 9,114 |
| India | 4,991,413 | 641,558 | 319,712 | 62,008 |
| Russia | 753,754 | 125,908 | 86,867 | 16,136 |
Sources: International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers
This tables breaks down vehicle production by type (cars, LCVs, HCVs, and buses) for those countries. LCVs are commercial vehicles with a gross weight for no more than 3.5 tons and HCVs are more than 3.5 tons. China leads in cars and HCVs, the U.S. in LCVs, and India in buses.
China Produces the Most Cars and HCVs in the World
Largest Global Importers of Tractors, 2024
| Nation | Imports |
|---|---|
| United States | $15,669 |
| Canada | $5,308 |
| Germany | $3,460 |
| United Kingdom | $2,789 |
| Poland | $2,423 |
Sources: World Integrated Trade Solution
This table ranks the top global importers of tractors in 2024, with the United States leading by a significant margin, showing how US agriculture is reliant on foreign production.
The U.S. Imports the Most Tractors in the World
Total Exports of Semiconductors, Computer Chips, and Parts Thereof (Millions of USD)
| Year | China, Mainland | U.S. |
|---|---|---|
| 1990 | $128 | $11,401 |
| 2000 | $4,490 | $45,198 |
| 2010 | $62,416 | $31,619 |
| 2020 | $153,789 | $27,577 |
| 2024 | $209,216 | $30,199 |
Sources: World Integrated Trade Solution
This table compares the exports of semiconductor-related products between China and the U.S. from 1990 to 2024. It illustrates China’s rapid growth in high-tech, doubling U.S. exports by 2010, and highlights the continued decrease of U.S. exports until 2024.
China Dominates the U.S. in Exports of Semiconductors, Computer Chips, and Parts Thereof
U.S. Pharmaceutical and Medicinal Imports by Weight in 2024
| Country | Total U.S. Pharma Imports (kg) | Percent of Total U.S. Pharma Imports |
|---|---|---|
| China | 111,295,368 | 13% |
| India | 136,619,029 | 17% |
| Rest of the World | 580,714,035 | 70% |
Sources: World Integrated Trade Solution
In the event of a war with China, the U.S. does not have enough domestic drugs to protect our population. This table shows the significant role of China and India supplying pharmaceuticals to the U.S. market, together accounting for 30% of total U.S. pharmaceutical imports.
In 2024, Out of All U.S. Pharmaceutical Imports, 13% Came From China and 17% From India
Top 5 Largest Trade Deficits by Product, 2024
| Product | Deficit (Billions of USD) |
|---|---|
| Motor cars and other motor vehicles (HS8703) | ($162) |
| Automatic data processing machines (HS8471) | ($121) |
| Telephone sets (HS8517) | ($104) |
| Medicines and medicaments (HS3004) | ($74) |
| Blood and blood components (HS3002) | ($63) |
Sources: World Integrated Trade Solution
This table lists the top 5 largest trade deficits by product, with motor vehicles leading, followed by automated data processing machines, telephone sets, medicaments, and blood products.
In 2024, Motor Vehicles Contributed $162 Billion to the Trade Deficit
Top 5 Largest Trade Surpluses by Product, 2024
| Product | Surplus (Billions of USD) |
|---|---|
| Petroleum oils and oils from bituminous minerals (HS2710) | $58 |
| Petroleum gases and other gaseous hydrocarbons (HS2711) | $53 |
| Soybeans, whether broken or not (HS1201) | $24 |
| Maize (corn) (HS1005) | $14 |
| Coal; briquettes, ovoids and similar solid fuels (HS2701) | $14 |
Sources: World Integrated Trade Solution
This table showcases the top 5 products where the U.S. maintains a trade surplus in 2024, led by petroleum gas and oil products, as well as soybeans, corn, and coal.
The U.S. Has Trade Surpluses on Petroleum Gas and Oils, Soybeans, Coal, and Corn
Top 5 Largest Trade Deficits with China by Product, 2024
| Product | Deficit (Billions of USD) |
|---|---|
| Telephone sets/ telephones (HS8517) | ($52) |
| Data processing machines (HS8471) | ($37) |
| Electric accumulators (HS8507) | ($18) |
| Toys, Tricycles & Scooters (HS9503) | ($14) |
| Parts and Accessories for Motor Vehicles (HS8708) | ($9) |
Sources: World Integrated Trade Solution
This table highlights the top 5 products the U.S. has the largest deficit with China in. This includes telephones, data processors, electric accumulators, toys, and parts and accessories for vehicles.
The U.S. Has Significant Trade Deficits with China in Consumer Electronics and Manufactured Goods
Top 5 Largest Trade Surpluses with China by Product, 2024
| Product | Surplus (Billions of USD) |
|---|---|
| Soybeans, whether broken or not (HS1201) | $13 |
| Petroleum gases and other gaseous hydrocarbons (HS2711) | $6 |
| Electronic integrated circuits; parts thereof (HS8542) | $6 |
| Machines and apparatus used to make Semiconductors (HS8486) | $3 |
| Copper waste and scrap (HS7404) | $3 |
Sources: World Integrated Trade Solution
This lists the top 5 products the U.S. maintained a trade surplus on with China in 2024. It is significantly less than the deficits with China, showing an unfair trade balance. The US had a trade surplus in oils with China in 2023 of $9 billion, but 2024 data for trade in oil with China has yet to be released.
In 2024, the U.S. Maintained a $13 Billion Trade Surplus with China for Soybeans and Grew its Surplus for Microchips to $6 Billion
Average U.S. Income by Education Attainment
| Year | High School Degree or Less | Trade/Technical School | Bachelor’s Degree Only |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | $47,330 | $59,590 | $87,710 |
| 2022 | $45,770 | $58,220 | $85,750 |
| 2021 | $43,015 | $52,700 | $81,230 |
| 2020 | $39,465 | $43,015 | $74,013 |
| 2019 | $39,549 | $49,006 | $73,693 |
Sources: Economic Policy Institute, Census Bureau
This table shows annual wages by education level for Technical and Trade School graduates, those with a High School degree or less, and those with a Bachelor’s Degree. It is growing increasingly difficult to support a middle class lifestyle with just a high school education or even an associate’s degree.
The Wage Disparity Between Earners with a High School Degree or Less and Those with a Bachelor’s Degree Continue to be Significant