Current Economic Events
- The US goods trade deficit so far this year totals to $604 billion, an increase of $155 billion in the deficit over the same period last year from $449 billion. If this increased deficit trend continues, we’d expect the annual trade deficit to be over $1.45 trillion.
- The ATTOM US Home Affordability Report shows that spending on houses now takes up nearly 34% of the average American’s annual income, compared to the share of income recommended by banks of 28%, resulting in a drop in people who can afford homes.
- Chinese semiconductor exports grew by a significant $50 billion in 2024, increasing to $209 billion in total exports, over six times greater than the US’s total semiconductor exports of just $30 billion.
- The US imported $23.32 billion in semiconductors in 2024, with the majority of imports coming from Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia. Imports from China only constituted 2.8% of the total semiconductor imports.
- The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment, which measures consumer confidence in the US economy, saw a major drop of 29% from January to April, going from 71.7 to 52.2.
- Despite new tariffs being levied against numerous countries, we’ve actually seen trade deficits rise with countries like Mexico, Vietnam, Taiwan, and South Korea, showing that low tariffs have been ineffective at bringing jobs back to the US and that more actions need to be taken to ensure China is unable to produce its goods through these countries for a lower tariff.
- China’s export restrictions on their rare earth metals—which currently account for 70% of U.S. rare earth imports—highlight the urgent need to diversify our supply chain through partnerships with countries like Vietnam and Poland, while also strengthening domestic processing capabilities.
Cumulative U.S. Goods Trade Surplus/Deficit (1960 – May 2025)
| Date | Trade Surplus/Deficit (Trillions) |
|---|---|
| 1960 | $0.01 |
| 1980 | ($0.09) |
| 2000 | ($3.18) |
| Beginning of 2025 | ($17.26) |
| Apr 2025 | ($22.29) |
| May 2025 | ($22.38) |
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Bureau of Economic Analysis
The US has been importing more goods than it’s been exporting for the past half-century.
Cumulative U.S. Goods Trade Surplus/Deficit by Country (1985 – May 2025)
| Country | Goods Trade Surplus/Deficit (Trillions) | Percentage Change |
|---|---|---|
| China (Mainland) | ($7.22) | 0.2% |
| Japan | ($2.59) | 0.2% |
| Mexico | ($1.99) | 0.9% |
| Germany | ($1.62) | 0.4% |
| Canada | ($1.35) | 0.2% |
| Ireland | ($0.94) | 1.3% |
| Vietnam | ($0.90) | 1.7% |
| Taiwan | ($0.75) | 1.6% |
| Italy | ($0.74) | 0.3% |
| South Korea | ($0.64) | 1.0% |
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
We have seen nearly all US cumulative trade deficits with other major countries worsen in May.
U.S. Monthly Goods Trade Deficit by Country
| Country | U.S. Goods Trade Deficit for May 2025 (Billions USD) | Percentage Change | Percent of Total Month’s Deficit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico | -$18.2 | 29.5% | 19.4% |
| Vietnam | -$14.7 | 8.5% | 15.8% |
| China | -$13.9 | -18.9% | 14.9% |
| Ireland | -$11.8 | 25.0% | 12.6% |
| Taiwan | -$11.7 | 21.7% | 12.5% |
| Germany | -$6.8 | 17.2% | 7.3% |
| South Korea | -$6.0 | 57.6% | 6.5% |
| Japan | -$4.9 | -27.4% | 5.2% |
| Canada | -$2.8 | 22.1% | 2.9% |
| Italy | -$2.6 | -26.1% | 2.8% |
| All Other | -$0.1 | 6.9% | 0.1% |
| Total | -$93.5 |
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Our trade deficit for May was a slight increase from April, with a notable decrease occurring in China’s trade surplus of $3 billion.
Average Annual Earnings & Benefits by Selected Industries (May 2025)
| Industry | Average Annual Wages | Estimated Annual Benefits | Total Annual Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manufacturing Jobs | |||
| Transport Manufacturers | $79,016 | $21,798 | $100,814 |
| Chemical Manufacturing | $68,393 | $21,439 | $89,832 |
| Primary Metal Manufacturing | $66,003 | $22,053 | $88,057 |
| Machinery Manufacturing | $63,151 | $20,570 | $83,721 |
| Service Jobs | |||
| Accommodation | $32,931 | $2,628 | $35,558 |
| Gas Station Employees | $29,373 | $2,706 | $32,079 |
| Food & Drink Cashiers | $26,883 | $4,164 | $31,048 |
| Food Services | $24,224 | $2,109 | $26,333 |
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Jobs in manufacturing continue to offer higher wages and benefits compared to jobs in the service industry.
Total Manufacturing Employees and Their Percentage of All Jobs
| Year | Manufacturing Jobs (Millions) | Percent Manufacturing of All Jobs | U.S. Population (Millions) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1960 | 15.0 | 27.9% | 176 |
| 1980 | 18.6 | 20.5% | 223 |
| 2000 | 17.1 | 13.0% | 282 |
| 2020 | 12.2 | 8.5% | 333 |
| Beginning of 2025 | 12.8 | 8.0% | 341 |
| May 2025 | 12.8 | 8.0% | 342 |
| Jun 2025 | 12.8 | 8.0% | 342 |
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Manufacturing, Non-farm)
Manufacturing industry employment continues to stagnate despite the growing demand for new workers.
Average Federal Government Debt Per Person in the US Population
| Year | Federal Debt per Capita |
|---|---|
| 1952 | $1,638 |
| 1960 | $1,571 |
| 1980 | $3,966 |
| 2000 | $19,955 |
| 2020 | $83,549 |
| Beginning of 2025 | $106,500 |
| Apr 2025 | $106,161 |
| May 2025 | $105,970 |
Inflation Rates (CPI) by Country
| Month | USA | China | Japan | South Korea | Germany |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2025 | 2.4% | -0.1% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 2.2% |
| Apr 2025 | 2.3% | -0.1% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 2.1% |
| May 2025 | 2.4% | -0.1% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 2.1% |
| Jun 2025 | – | 0.1% | – | 2.2% | 2% |
Source: Trading Economics
Inflation continues to decrease around the world, with China experiencing a slight deflation.
Major Holders of U.S. Treasury Securities for April 2025
| Country | Holdings (Billions) | Percentage Change |
|---|---|---|
| Tax Haven Countries | $1,510 | 0.1% |
| Japan | $1,134 | 0.3% |
| United Kingdom | $808 | 3.6% |
| China, Mainland | $757 | -1.1% |
| Belgium | $411 | 2.2% |
| Canada | $368 | -13.6% |
| France | $361 | -0.7% |
| Taiwan | $299 | 0.3% |
| Singapore | $248 | -5.7% |
| Hong Kong | $247 | -6.0% |
| India | $232 | -3.1% |
| Total Foreign Holdings | $9,013 | -0.4% |
Source: U.S. Treasury
Total foreign holdings saw a decrease from March to April of about $37 billion.
Goods Sector Employment: Manufacturing, Construction, Mining
| Year | Millions of Jobs | % of All Jobs |
|---|---|---|
| 1960 | 19.1 | 35.2% |
| 1980 | 24.2 | 26.7% |
| 2000 | 24.6 | 18.6% |
| 2020 | 20.0 | 14.1% |
| Beginning of 2025 | 21.6 | 13.6% |
| May 2025 | 21.6 | 13.6% |
| Jun 2025 | 21.7 | 13.6% |
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED: Manufacturing, Total Nonfarm, Mining, Quarrying, and Extraction, Construction
Goods-sector employment still remains well below what it was in previous decades.
QUARTERLY DATA
Net Foreign Wealth Per Person (NIIP) by Country
| Country | 2005 | 2010 | 2015 | 2020 | 2024 Q3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | $4,365 | $10,761 | $18,729 | $34,479 | $44,075 |
| Japan | $11,972 | $24,590 | $21,400 | $29,173 | $29,093 |
| Canada | ($4,653) | ($8,824) | $8,964 | $23,152 | $34,808 |
| South Korea | ($2,906) | ($2,624) | $3,921 | $10,622 | $18,975 |
| China | $263 | $1,081 | $1,187 | $1,494 | $2,260 |
| Greece | ($16,379) | ($26,978) | ($24,030) | ($32,649) | ($32,563) |
| United States | ($6,294) | ($8,115) | ($23,262) | ($42,185) | ($70,145) |
Source: International Investment Position at IMF (International Monetary Fund)
The United States Owes Far More Than Any Other Country as the World’s Largest Net Borrower
Net International Investment Position (NIIP) is the difference between what a country owns abroad and what it owes to a foreign entity. Positive NIIP means a country is a net lender while a negative figure means the country is a net borrower. The United States is the world’s largest net borrower.
National Debt (Public) by Country as % of GDP
| Nation | 1995 | 2000 | 2010 | 2020 | 2024, Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | — | — | 16.4% | 20.6% | 25.6% |
| Germany | — | 38.2% | 52.1% | 44.8% | 44.0% |
| United States | 70.4% | 53.4% | 85.0% | 124.7% | 116.0% |
ANNUAL DATA
Change in Household Income and Major Expenses
| Average Household Income by Percentile | Household Expenses | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Top 5% | Next 15% | Middle 60% | Bottom 20% | Average Healthcare | Average Tuition and Fees | Median Housing Values |
| 1970 | 33,280 | 17,813 | 8,778 | 1,992 | 1,168 | 645 | 23,475 |
| 2023 | 526,200 | 221,000 | 85,907 | 17,650 | 37,120 | 14,688 | 426,525 |
| % Change | 1,481% | 1,141% | 879% | 786% | 3,078% | 2,177% | 1,717% |
Sources: US Census Bureau, Minneapolis Fed, Center for Medicaid, FRED, National Center for Education Statistics
The Growing Income Disparity and Rise in Healthcare and Education Costs Compared is Plaguing the Middle Class
This table compares average household income by percentile and major expenses from 1970 to 2023, highlighting middle-class stagnation and rising costs. Between 1979 and 2021, real earnings for the top 1% and 0.1% rose by 206% and 465%, respectively, according to the Economic Policy Institute.
Average Annual Wage Increases for 2010 – 2024: U.S. vs China
| Country | Total | Worker’s Raises Per Year |
|---|---|---|
| China | 226.15% | 9.52% |
| U.S. | 52.81% | 3.32% |
Sources: OECD, Trading Economics, Statista
China has seen dramatic wage increases since 2010, with wages increasing by 226%.
This comparison of average annual wage increases between China and the U.S. highlights a major disparity. Since 2010, China has a 226% total increase compared to the 52% of the U.S. reflecting the formers rapid economic development.
Critical Goods Production: Materials in the U.S. and China
| Aluminum (Millions of Tons) | Steel (Millions of Tons) | Coal(Millions of Tons) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | USA | China | USA | China | USA | China |
| 2024 | 0.7 | 43.4 | 81.0 | 1,000.8 | 464.2 | 4,760.0 |
| 2000 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 102.0 | 128.5 | 974.0 | 849.4 |
| 1953 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 101.0 | 1.8 | 441.3 | 70.0 |
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, CEIC
China has Surpassed the U.S. in Aluminum, Steel, and Coal Production
This table highlights China’s dramatic surge in production of aluminum, steel, and coal, surpassing the U.S. in the production of these critical goods. The U.S. no longer has the capacity to produce enough critical goods or defend itself in the event of war since we import so much from China.
Total Vehicle Production by Country
| Year | USA | China | Japan | Germany | South Korea | India | Russia |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 10,562,188 | 31,281,592 | 8,997,440 | 4,069,222 | 4,127,252 | 6,014,691 | 982,665 |
| 2000 | 12,799,857 | 2,069,069 | 10,140,769 | 5,526,615 | 3,114,998 | 801,360 | 1,205,581 |
| 1980 | 8,020,830 | < 360,000 | 11,058,029 | 3,885,357 | 360,000 | 360,000 | 2,198,301 |
| 1950 | 8,005,010 | < 3,000 | 31,597 | 306,064 | 3,000 | 14,688 | 362,985 |
Sources: International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers
Historic automobile manufacturing countries like the US, Japan, and Germany saw decreases in production in 2024, while Russia, India, and China ramped up theirs.
This table tracks vehicle production from 1950 to 2024 across several major automobile manufacturing countries. It showcases China’s rise to becoming the world’s largest vehicle producer in the world, overcoming traditional powerhouses like the U.S. and Japan.
Total Vehicle Production by Type, 2024
| Country | Cars | LCV | HCV | Buses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 1,432,615 | 8,804,413 | 325,160 | * |
| China | 27,476,886 | 2,029,329 | 1,655,941 | 119,436 |
| Japan | 7,139,188 | 629,124 | 460,130 | 6,239 |
| Germany | 4,069,222 | 281,078 | 88,240 | 5,382 |
| South Korea | 3,849,326 | 219,716 | 49,095 | 9,114 |
| India | 4,991,413 | 641,558 | 319,712 | 62,008 |
| Russia | 753,754 | 125,908 | 86,867 | 16,136 |
Sources: International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers
China Produces the Most Cars and HCVs in the World
This tables breaks down vehicle production by type (cars, LCVs, HCVs, and buses) for those countries. LCVs are commercial vehicles with a gross weight for no more than 3.5 tons and HCVs are more than 3.5 tons. China leads in cars and HCVs, the U.S. in LCVs, and India in buses.
Largest Global Importers of Tractors, 2024
| Nation | Imports |
|---|---|
| United States | $15,669 |
| Canada | $5,308 |
| Germany | $3,460 |
| United Kingdom | $2,789 |
| Poland | $2,423 |
Sources: World Integrated Trade Solution
The U.S. Imports the Most Tractors in the World
This table ranks the top global importers of tractors in 2024, with the United States leading by a significant margin, showing how US agriculture is reliant on foreign production.
Total Exports of Semiconductors, Computer Chips, and Parts Thereof (Millions of USD)
| Year | China, Mainland | U.S. |
|---|---|---|
| 1990 | $128 | $11,401 |
| 2000 | $4,490 | $45,198 |
| 2010 | $62,416 | $31,619 |
| 2020 | $153,789 | $27,577 |
| 2024 | $209,216 | $30,199 |
Sources: World Integrated Trade Solution
China Dominates the U.S. in Exports of Semiconductors, Computer Chips, and Parts Thereof
This table compares the exports of semiconductor-related products between China and the U.S. from 1990 to 2024. It illustrates China’s rapid growth in high-tech, doubling U.S. exports by 2010, and highlights the continued decrease of U.S. exports until 2024.
U.S. Pharmaceutical and Medicinal Imports by Weight in 2024
| Country | Total U.S. Pharma Imports (kg) | Percent of Total U.S. Pharma Imports |
|---|---|---|
| China | 111,295,368 | 13% |
| India | 136,619,029 | 17% |
| Rest of the World | 580,714,035 | 70% |
Sources: World Integrated Trade Solution
In 2024, Out of All U.S. Pharmaceutical Imports, 13% Came From China and 17% From India
In the event of a war with China, the U.S. does not have enough domestic drugs to protect our population. This table shows the significant role of China and India supplying pharmaceuticals to the U.S. market, together accounting for 30% of total U.S. pharmaceutical imports.
Top 5 Largest Trade Deficits by Product, 2024
| Product | Deficit (Billions of USD) |
|---|---|
| Motor cars and other motor vehicles (HS8703) | ($162) |
| Automatic data processing machines (HS8471) | ($121) |
| Telephone sets (HS8517) | ($104) |
| Medicines and medicaments (HS3004) | ($74) |
| Blood and blood components (HS3002) | ($63) |
Sources: World Integrated Trade Solution
In 2024, Motor Vehicles Contributed $162 Billion to the Trade Deficit
This table lists the top 5 largest trade deficits by product, with motor vehicles leading, followed by automated data processing machines, telephone sets, medicaments, and blood products.
Top 5 Largest Trade Surpluses by Product, 2024
| Product | Surplus (Billions of USD) |
|---|---|
| Petroleum oils and oils from bituminous minerals (HS2710) | $58 |
| Petroleum gases and other gaseous hydrocarbons (HS2711) | $53 |
| Soybeans, whether broken or not (HS1201) | $24 |
| Maize (corn) (HS1005) | $14 |
| Coal; briquettes, ovoids and similar solid fuels (HS2701) | $14 |
Sources: World Integrated Trade Solution
The U.S. Has Trade Surpluses on Petroleum Gas and Oils, Soybeans, Coal, and Corn
This table showcases the top 5 products where the U.S. maintains a trade surplus in 2024, led by petroleum gas and oil products, as well as soybeans, corn, and coal.
Top 5 Largest Trade Deficits with China by Product, 2024
| Product | Deficit (Billions of USD) |
|---|---|
| Telephone sets/ telephones (HS8517) | ($52) |
| Data processing machines (HS8471) | ($37) |
| Electric accumulators (HS8507) | ($18) |
| Toys, Tricycles & Scooters (HS9503) | ($14) |
| Parts and Accessories for Motor Vehicles (HS8708) | ($9) |
Sources: World Integrated Trade Solution
The U.S. Has Significant Trade Deficits with China in Consumer Electronics and Manufactured Goods
This table highlights the top 5 products the U.S. has the largest deficit with China in. This includes telephones, data processors, electric accumulators, toys, and parts and accessories for vehicles.
Top 5 Largest Trade Surpluses with China by Product, 2024
| Product | Surplus (Billions of USD) |
|---|---|
| Soybeans, whether broken or not (HS1201) | $13 |
| Petroleum gases and other gaseous hydrocarbons (HS2711) | $6 |
| Electronic integrated circuits; parts thereof (HS8542) | $6 |
| Machines and apparatus used to make Semiconductors (HS8486) | $3 |
| Copper waste and scrap (HS7404) | $3 |
Sources: World Integrated Trade Solution
In 2024, the U.S. Maintained a $13 Billion Trade Surplus with China for Soybeans and Grew its Surplus for Microchips to $6 Billion
This lists the top 5 products the U.S. maintained a trade surplus on with China in 2024. It is significantly less than the deficits with China, showing an unfair trade balance. The US had a trade surplus in oils with China in 2023 of $9 billion, but 2024 data for trade in oil with China has yet to be released.
Average U.S. Income by Education Attainment
| Year | High School Degree or Less | Trade/Technical School | Bachelor’s Degree Only |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | $47,330 | $59,590 | $87,710 |
| 2022 | $45,770 | $58,220 | $85,750 |
| 2021 | $43,015 | $52,700 | $81,230 |
| 2020 | $39,465 | $43,015 | $74,013 |
| 2019 | $39,549 | $49,006 | $73,693 |
Sources: Economic Policy Institute, Census Bureau
The Wage Disparity Between Earners with a High School Degree or Less and Those with a Bachelor’s Degree Continue to be Significant
This table shows annual wages by education level for Technical and Trade School graduates, those with a High School degree or less, and those with a Bachelor’s Degree. It is growing increasingly difficult to support a middle class lifestyle with just a high school education or even an associate’s degree.