BCDI Chairman Report – December 2025

Chairman Report
by
Blue Collar Dollar Institute
December 17, 2025
Blue Collar Dollar Institute – Economic Report
Monthly Report • Released 9:30 AM on the 3rd Wednesday of each month

Current Economic Events

  • The costs of housing and medical care have increased by 33.9% and 19.4% since 2019 and have grown an astonishing 131% and 301% respectively since 2001, outpacing wage growth and highlighting the growing difficulty of achieving a “middle-class” lifestyle in recent years.
  • The job market for recent college graduates continues to soften, with a record 25% of unemployed workers holding four-year degrees, while rising demand in the skilled trades creates new opportunities without requiring a bachelor’s degree.
  • Despite the president’s implementation of both unilateral and reciprocal tariffs, the US goods trade deficit so far this year is a $106 billion increase over the deficit across the same period last year, now totaling $979 billion. If this increased deficit trend continues, we’d expect the annual trade deficit to be nearly $1.3 trillion.
  • With a growing shortage in instructors for skilled trades education, there is an opportunity for employers to keep or rehire older members of their workforce into training roles to serve as mentors to younger cohorts.
  • U.S. inflation has reversed course, climbing to a 3.0% annual rate in September after bottoming out at 2.4% in March.

HOUSEHOLD FINANCES

This section tracks American household financial health through wages, income, and major expenses. Data includes compensation by industry, income by education level, household expense trends, and wage growth comparisons between the U.S. and China.


Average Annual Earnings & Benefits by Selected Industries (October 2025)

IndustryAverage Annual WagesEstimated Annual BenefitsTotal Annual Earnings
Manufacturing Jobs
Transport Manufacturers$81,215$21,681$102,895
Chemical Manufacturing$69,023$21,732$90,755
Primary Metal Manufacturing$65,545$22,400$87,945
Machinery Manufacturing$65,857$21,167$87,024
Service Jobs
Accommodation$34,086$2,699$36,785
Gas Station Employees$30,078$2,773$32,851
Food & Drink Cashiers$27,973$4,283$32,256
Food Services$24,409$2,150$26,559

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Frequency: Monthly

Last updated: Dec 03, 2025

Next updated: Jan 03, 2026



This comparison highlights the differences in pay and benefits between manufacturing jobs and service-sector jobs. Manufacturing positions provide higher wages and stronger benefits, which support middle-class stability and are why growing the manufacturing sector is vital for raising living standards.

Average U.S. Income by Education Attainment

Year High School Degree or Less Trade/Technical School Bachelor’s Degree Only
2024 $50,770 $61,480 $93,020
2023 $47,330 $59,590 $87,710
2022 $45,770 $58,220 $85,750
2021 $43,015 $52,700 $81,230
2020 $39,465 $43,015 $74,013

Sources: Census Bureau

Frequency: Annual

Last Update: September 2025

Next Update: September 2026



This indicator tracks how much workers earn depending on their education. Workers with only a high school diploma earn significantly less than those with a bachelor’s degree or degree from a technical college. The widening earnings gap shows how difficult it has become to achieve or maintain a middle-class lifestyle without the pursuit of higher education or technical training.

Change in Household Income and Major Expenses

Average Household Income by Percentile Household Expenses
Year Top 5% Next 15% Middle 60% Bottom 20% Average Healthcare Average Tuition and Fees Median Housing Values
1970 33,280 17,813 8,778 1,992 1,168 645 23,475
2023 526,200 221,000 85,907 17,650 37,120 14,688 426,525
% Change 1,481% 1,141% 879% 786% 3,078% 2,177% 1,717%

Sources: US Census Bureau, Minneapolis Fed, Center for Medicaid, FRED, National Center for Education Statistics

Frequency: Annual

Last Update: September 2024

Next Update: December 2025



This table compares the growth in incomes of households across different income levels with the rising costs of essentials like healthcare, tuition, and housing. While top earners have seen their incomes soar, middle-class wages have not kept pace with major expenses, showing why many families feel squeezed even as the economy grows.

Average Annual Wage Increases for 2010 – 2024: U.S. vs China

Country Total Worker’s Raises Per Year
U.S. 58.2% 3.32%
China 239.7% 9.13%

Sources: OECD, Trading Economics, Statista

Frequency: Annual

Last Update: September 2025

Next Update: September 2026



This comparison tracks how much wages have grown in the U.S. and China since 2010. China’s rapid increases highlight its rising economic strength and competitiveness, while slower U.S. wage growth signals challenges for American workers trying to keep up with global competition.


MANUFACTURING

Manufacturing data covering employment trends, vehicle production by country and type, and production of critical goods including pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and industrial equipment.


Total Manufacturing Employees and Their Percentage of All Jobs

YearManufacturing Jobs (Millions)Percent Manufacturing of All JobsU.S. Population (Millions)
196015.027.9%176
198018.620.5%223
200017.113.0%282
202012.28.5%333
Beginning of 202512.88.0%341
Oct 202512.78.0%342
Nov 202512.78.0%342

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Manufacturing, Non-farm)

Frequency: Monthly

Last updated: Dec 05, 2025

Next updated: Jan 05, 2026



This indicator shows how many Americans work in manufacturing and what share of the overall workforce they represent. Even as the U.S. population has grown, the percentage in manufacturing has steadily declined. This decline matters because manufacturing jobs have historically provided good wages, skills, and economic mobility.

Goods Sector Employment: Manufacturing, Construction, Mining

YearMillions of Jobs% of All Jobs
1960 19.1 35.2%
1980 24.2 26.7%
2000 24.6 18.6%
2020 20.0 14.1%
Beginning of 2025 21.6 13.6%
Oct 2025 21.6 13.5%
Nov 2025 21.6 13.5%

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED: Manufacturing, Total Nonfarm, Mining, Quarrying, and Extraction, Construction

Frequency: Monthly

Last updated: Dec 05, 2025

Next updated: Jan 05, 2026



This measure includes manufacturing, construction, and mining jobs, as well as their share of the total workforce. It shows how many Americans are employed in the production of goods, or physical items. A declining share of goods-producing jobs reflects not only a shift toward a service-based economy, but also the offshoring of U.S. industries, with serious consequences for wages, the trade balance, and long-term economic security.

Total Vehicle Production by Country

Year USA China Japan Germany South Korea India Russia
2024 10,562,188 31,281,592 8,997,440 4,069,222 4,127,252 6,014,691 982,665
2000 12,799,857 2,069,069 10,140,769 5,526,615 3,114,998 801,360 1,205,581
1980 8,020,830 < 360,000 11,058,029 3,885,357 360,000 360,000 2,198,301
1950 8,005,010 < 3,000 31,597 306,064 3,000 14,688 362,985

Sources: International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers

Frequency: Annual

Last Update: April 2025

Next Update: April 2026



This measure tracks how many vehicles each major country produces. It illustrates shifts in global manufacturing power, with China overtaking the U.S. and Japan as the world’s leading car producer. Vehicle production is a cornerstone of industrial strength and a major source of good jobs.

Total Vehicle Production by Type, 2024

Country Cars LCV HCV Buses
USA 1,432,615 8,804,413 325,160 *
China 27,476,886 2,029,329 1,655,941 119,436
Japan 7,139,188 629,124 460,130 6,239
Germany 4,069,222 281,078 88,240 5,382
South Korea 3,849,326 219,716 49,095 9,114
India 4,991,413 641,558 319,712 62,008
Russia 753,754 125,908 86,867 16,136

Sources: International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers

Frequency: Annual

Last Update: April 2025

Next Update: April 2026


Breaking down vehicle output by type (cars, light commercial vehicles or LCVs, heavy commercial vehicles or HCVs, buses) highlights each country’s industrial focus. The U.S. leads in the production of LCVs (include vehicles such as pickup trucks and cargo vans), while China dominates in passenger cars. These trends show that despite the US leading in LCVs, there is an increasing reliance on imports for passenger cars and HCVs, which include vehicles critical to US industries such as dump trucks, cement mixers, and semi-trucks.

Critical Goods Production: Materials in the U.S. and China

Aluminum (Millions of Tons) Steel (Millions of Tons) Coal(Millions of Tons)
Year USA China USA China USA China
2024 0.7 43.4 81.0 1,000.8 464.2 4,760.0
2000 3.7 2.8 102.0 128.5 974.0 849.4
1953 1.1 0.0 101.0 1.8 441.3 70.0

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, CEIC

Frequency: Annual

Last Update: April 2025

Next Update: April 2026



This table measures output of key industrial materials like aluminum, steel, and coal in millions of metric tons. China’s dominance shows how much U.S. manufacturing capacity has declined, which has raised concerns about economic security and defense readiness.


U.S. TRADE

Comprehensive trade balance data including overall trade deficits and surpluses, trade balances by country and product category, and specific import/export data for tractors, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals.


Cumulative U.S. Goods Trade Surplus/Deficit (1960 – Sep 2025)

DateTrade Surplus/Deficit (Trillions)
1960$0.01
1980($0.09)
2000($3.18)
2020($17.26)
Aug 2025($22.67)
Sep 2025($22.76)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Bureau of Economic Analysis

Frequency: Monthly

Last updated: Nov 09, 2025

Next updated: Dec 09, 2025


The U.S. cumulative trade balance measures the total difference between the value of goods America has sold abroad and the goods it has purchased from other countries since 1960. Because the balance is negative, the U.S. has run persistent trade deficits, meaning it consistently buys more than it sells. Over time, these deficits can weaken domestic industries, deepen reliance on imports, and raise concerns about America’s long-term competitiveness.

Cumulative U.S. Goods Trade Surplus/Deficit by Country (1985 – Sep 2025)

CountryGoods Trade Surplus/Deficit (Trillions)Percentage Change
China (Mainland)($7.28)0.2%
Japan($2.61)0.1%
Mexico($2.06)0.9%
Germany($1.64)0.3%
Canada($1.37)0.3%
Vietnam($0.97)1.7%
Ireland($0.96)1.9%
Taiwan($0.80)1.3%
Italy($0.75)-0.0%
South Korea($0.66)0.6%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Frequency: Monthly

Last updated: Nov 09, 2025

Next updated: Dec 09, 2025


This table shows which countries the U.S. has historically bought more from than it has sold to. Large and growing deficits with nations like China, Mexico, and Germany signal how much American consumers and businesses depend on foreign goods. These imbalances also highlight trade relationships that can affect U.S. jobs, wages, and strength of domestic production.

U.S. Monthly Goods Trade Deficit by Country

CountryU.S. Goods Trade Deficit for September 2025 (Billions USD)Percentage ChangePercent of Total Month’s Deficit
Ireland -$18.2 517.1% 20.2%
Mexico -$17.4 9.3% 19.3%
Vietnam -$16.5 9.8% 18.3%
China -$15.0 -10.8% 16.7%
Taiwan -$10.5 -20.5% 11.6%
Thailand -$7.0 15.0% 7.8%
Canada -$5.0 124.4% 5.5%
Germany -$4.5 7.2% 5.0%
South Korea -$3.7 -16.7% 4.1%
Japan -$3.5 -30.0% 3.8%
All Other $11.2 8.6% 12.5%
Total -$90.0

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Frequency: Monthly

Last updated: Nov 09, 2025

Next updated: Dec 09, 2025


This monthly snapshot reveals which countries contribute most to America’s trade deficit for a given month. Rising short-term deficits can point to surges in imports or weaknesses in U.S. exports. Tracking this helps us understand changing trade dynamics and where U.S. industries may be losing ground.

Top 5 Largest Trade Deficits by Product, 2024

Product Deficit (Billions of USD)
MOTOR CARS AND OTHER MOTOR VEHICLES DESIGNED TO TRANSPORT PEOPLE (OTHER THAN PUBLIC-TRANSPORT TYPE), INCLUDING STATION WAGONS AND RACING CARS (HS8703) ($157)
AUTOMATIC DATA PROCESSING MACHINES AND UNITS THEREOF; MAGNETIC OR OPTICAL READERS, MACHINES FOR TRANSCRIBING AND PROCESSING CODED DATA, NESOI (HS8471) ($100)
TELEPHONE SETS INCL SMARTPHONES AND OTH PHONES FOR CELLULAR NETWORKS/OTHER WIRELESS NETWORKS; OTH APPARATUS FOR THE TRANS/RECEP OF VOICE/IMAGE/DATA (HS8517) ($75)
MEDICAMENTS (EXCEPT VACCINES ETC., BANDAGES OR PHARMACEUTICALS), OF PRODUCTS (MIXED OR NOT) FOR THERAPEUTIC ETC. USES, IN DOSAGE OR RETAIL SALE FORM (HS3004) ($60)
HUMAN AND ANIMAL BLOOD, PREPARED; ANTISERA OTHER BLOOD FRCTNS IMMUNOLOGICAL PROD; VACCINES, TXNS, CULTURES OF MICRO-ORGANISMS (EXC YEASTS) & LIKE PROD (HS3002) ($54)

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau – International Trade

Frequency: Annual

Last Update: March 2025

Next Update: March 2026



This measure highlights which products the U.S. imports more than it exports. Large deficits in autos, electronics, and medicines show where U.S. production has fallen behind and where dependence on foreign suppliers is most pronounced.

Top 5 Largest Trade Surpluses by Product, 2024

Product Surplus (Billions of USD)
CIVILIAN AIRCRAFT, ENGINES, AND PARTS (HS8800) $124
PETROLEUM OILS& OILS FROM BITUMINOUS MINS (OTHER THAN CRUDE)& PRODUCTS THEREFROM, NESOI, CONTAINING 70% (BY WEIGHT) OR MORE OF THESE OILS; WASTE OILS (HS2710) $60
PETROLEUM GASES AND OTHER GASEOUS HYDROCARBONS (HS2711) $53
SOYBEANS, WHETHER OR NOT BROKEN (HS1201) $24
CORN (MAIZE) (HS1005) $14

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau – International Trade

Frequency: Annual

Last Update: March 2025

Next Update: March 2026



This measure shows which products the U.S. exports more than it imports. Surpluses in energy products like petroleum and natural gas, along with agricultural goods such as soybeans and corn, demonstrate America’s continued strengths in these sectors. While these surpluses help offset overall trade imbalances, they are not large enough on their own to counter the nation’s much bigger deficits in manufactured goods.

Top 5 Largest Trade Deficits with China by Product, 2024

Product Deficit (Billions of USD)
TELEPHONE SETS INCL SMARTPHONES AND OTH PHONES FOR CELLULAR NETWORKS/OTHER WIRELESS NETWORKS; OTH APPARATUS FOR THE TRANS/RECEP OF VOICE/IMAGE/DATA (HS8517) ($50)
AUTOMATIC DATA PROCESSING MACHINES AND UNITS THEREOF; MAGNETIC OR OPTICAL READERS, MACHINES FOR TRANSCRIBING AND PROCESSING CODED DATA, NESOI (HS8471) ($35)
ELECTRIC STORAGE BATTERIES, INCLUDING SEPARATORS THEREFOR; PARTS THEREOF (HS8507) ($18)
TOYS NESOI; SCALE MODELS ETC.; PUZZLES; PARTS AND ACCESSORIES THEREOF (HS9503) ($13)
PARTS AND ACCESSORIES FOR TRACTORS, PUBLIC-TRANSPORT PASSENGER VEHICLES, MOTOR CARS, GOODS TRANSPORT MOTOR VEHICLES AND SPECIAL PURPOSE MOTOR VEHICLES (HS8708) ($8)

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau – International Trade

Frequency: Annual

Last Update: June 2025

Next Update: June 2026



This table focuses on deficits in U.S.-China trade specifically. It shows how much more the U.S. imports from China in consumer electronics, toys, and car parts than it exports in those same goods. The imbalance shows an increasing reliance on Chinese manufacturing for important consumer and industrial products, reducing U.S. industrial competitiveness and increasing reliance on foreign supply chains.

Top 5 Largest Trade Surpluses with China by Product, 2024

Product Surplus (Billions of USD)
SOYBEANS, WHETHER OR NOT BROKEN (HS1201) $13
CIVILIAN AIRCRAFT, ENGINES, AND PARTS (HS8800) $12
ELECTRONIC INTEGRATED CIRCUITS AND MICROASSEMBLIES; PARTS THEREOF (HS8542) $7
PETROLEUM OILS AND OILS FROM BITUMINOUS MINERALS, CRUDE (HS2709) $6
HUMAN AND ANIMAL BLOOD, PREPARED; ANTISERA OTHER BLOOD FRCTNS IMMUNOLOGICAL PROD; VACCINES, TXNS, CULTURES OF MICRO-ORGANISMS (EXC YEASTS) & LIKE PROD (HS3002) $6

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau – International Trade

Frequency: Annual

Last Update: June 2025

Next Update: June 2026



This table highlights the limited areas where the U.S. runs a trade surplus with China. These are concentrated in agricultural goods like soybeans and a few high-tech products such as microchips and semiconductor-making equipment. These surpluses help reduce the overall imbalance slightly, but they are far too small to offset the much larger deficits in manufactured consumer goods.

Largest Global Importers of Tractors (Millions of USD), 2024

Nation Imports
United States $15,669
Canada $5,308
Germany $3,460
United Kingdom $2,789
Poland $2,423

Sources: World Integrated Trade Solution

Frequency: Annual

Last Update: March 2025

Next Update: March 2026



This indicator shows which countries rely most on imported agricultural machinery. The U.S. tops the list, underscoring how its farming sector depends heavily on foreign-made equipment. This reliance can pose risks if global supply chains are disrupted.

Total Exports of Semiconductors, Computer Chips, and Parts Thereof (Millions of USD)

Year China, Mainland U.S.
1990 $128 $11,401
2000 $4,490 $45,198
2010 $62,416 $31,619
2020 $153,789 $27,577
2024 $209,216 $30,199

Sources: World Integrated Trade Solution

Frequency: Annual

Last Update: June 2025

Next Update: June 2026



This table compares how much China and the U.S. export in advanced technology products. Chips are the “brains” of modern electronics and critical to both consumer goods and defense systems. China’s dominance underscores U.S. challenges in maintaining leadership in high-tech manufacturing.

U.S. Pharmaceutical and Medicinal Imports by Weight in 2024

Country Total U.S. Pharma Imports (kg) Percent of Total U.S. Pharma Imports
China 129,272,872 15%
India 137,106,641 16%
Rest of World 583,921,240 69%

Sources: World Integrated Trade Solution

Frequency: Annual

Last Update: March 2025

Next Update: March 2026



This indicator tracks where America’s imported medicines come from. Heavy dependence on India and China for pharmaceuticals raises concerns about national health security, since disruptions in supply could leave the U.S. vulnerable in a crisis.


U.S. ECONOMY

Macroeconomic indicators including Net International Investment Position (NIIP) per capita, foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury securities, national debt as a percentage of GDP, inflation rates by country, and federal debt per person.


Net Foreign Wealth Per Person (NIIP) by Country

Country20052010201520202024 Q3
Germany$4,365$10,761$18,729$34,479$44,075
Japan$11,972$24,590$21,400$29,173$29,093
Canada($4,653)($8,824)$8,964$23,152$34,808
South Korea($2,906)($2,624)$3,921$10,622$18,975
China$263$1,081$1,187$1,494$2,260
Greece($16,379)($26,978)($24,030)($32,649)($32,563)
United States($6,294)($8,115)($23,262)($42,185)($70,145)

Source: International Investment Position at IMF (International Monetary Fund)

Frequency: Quarterly

Last updated: Jan 01, 2025

Next updated: Apr 01, 2025

Other Source:

Census Bureau (Population)



Net International Investment Position (NIIP) compares how much a nation owns in overseas assets versus how much foreigners own of that nation’s assets. A negative number means a country owes more to the world than it owns abroad. The U.S. is the world’s largest net borrower, resulting in increased reliance on foreign countries to obtain the goods we need, especially during times of crisis.

Major Holders of U.S. Treasury Securities for September 2025

CountryHoldings (Billions)Percentage Change
Tax Haven Countries $1,491 1.4%
Japan $1,189 0.8%
United Kingdom $865 -4.3%
China, Mainland $700 -0.1%
Canada $476 7.2%
Belgium $467 2.8%
France $376 -3.5%
Taiwan $313 -0.3%
Singapore $260 -0.8%
Hong Kong $238 -5.5%
Norway $216 0.5%
Total Foreign Holdings $9,249 -0.1%

Source: U.S. Treasury

Frequency: Monthly

Last updated: Nov 20, 2025

Next updated: Dec 20, 2025


This is a list of the foreign countries that hold U.S. government debt. When foreign investors buy U.S. Treasuries, it helps finance federal spending. But heavy reliance on foreign buyers also creates vulnerabilities if those countries reduce their holdings, which could raise borrowing costs.

*Tax haven countries are Luxembourg, Cayman Islands, Ireland, and Switzerland.

National Debt (Public) by Country as % of GDP

Nation19952000201020202025, Q2
China16.4%20.6%27.6%
Germany38.2%52.1%44.8%43.9%
United States70.4%53.4%85.0%124.7%115.0%

Source: World Bank

Frequency: Quarterly

Last updated: Oct 01, 2025

Next updated: Jan 01, 2026



This ratio shows how much a country owes compared to the size of its economy. High debt-to-GDP levels mean more national income is tied up in interest payments instead of growth. The U.S. debt burden is significantly higher than many peers, which could limit flexibility in future economic downturns and decrease the funds available to invest in resources like infrastructure or national security.

Inflation Rates (CPI) by Country

MonthUSAChinaJapanSouth KoreaGermany
Aug 20252.9%-0.4%2.7%2.1%2.4%
Sep 20253%-0.3%2.9%2.1%2.4%
Oct 20250.2%3%2.4%2.3%
Nov 20250.7%2.4%2.3%

Source: Trading Economics

Frequency: Monthly

Last updated: Oct 24, 2025

Next updated: Dec 18, 2025



Inflation tracks how quickly the prices of everyday goods and services rise. Moderate inflation is normal, but high inflation reduces purchasing power, makes it harder for families to afford necessities, and increases costs for businesses. Comparing inflation across countries helps show where the U.S. stands relative to other major nations.

Average Federal Government Debt Per Person in the US Population

YearFederal Debt per Capita
1952$1,638
1960$1,571
1980$3,966
2000$19,955
2020$83,549
Beginning of 2025$106,500
Aug 2025$109,229
Sep 2025$110,154

Source: Debt Held by Public

Frequency: Monthly

Last updated: Oct 30, 2025

Next updated: Nov 30, 2025

Other Source:

CPI: Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED

Population: Bureau of Economic Analysis via FRED



This measure divides total U.S. federal debt by the number of Americans. It shows how much each person would owe if the debt were shared equally. Rising debt per capita raises concerns about government spending, future tax burdens, and the ability to invest in priorities like infrastructure and education.

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